Qualitative Identity of Real and Synthetic Data via Dynamical Model of Optimal Growth

A dynamical model of optimal economic growth is used for the comparison of catalogues of real econometric data and synthetic growth scenarios. The model is calibrated on a database of the Tokyo Institute of Technology. A special attention is paid to the aggregated data of the Japanese manufacturing industry in period 1955-1992. A description of an algorithm of modeling optimal trends in the technological dynamics is given. The work has been performed within the framework of the joint research program of IIASA and the Tokyo Institute of Technology on "Comparative Analysis of the Endogenous Techno-economic Process: Technology Spillovers in Japan, the USA, Europe and APEC countries.