PDE - Cape Verde: A Systems Study of Population, Development, and Environment

This study is an holistic analysis of population, socio-economic development and the environment (PDE) in a case study of an arid island state, Cape Verde. It describes and analyzes the dynamics of: how population change leads to economic reaction; how economic activities are shaped and/or constrained by the natural environment; how the environment influences the population and its society. The study rests on two tiers of research. The first is an historical analysis of the case country with qualitative and statistical detail, contained in five chapters: history; population; social factors: economy; and environment. It includes a demographic method to analyze effects of mortality increase; and to estimate migration and fertility. The second tier is simulation modeling, contained in three chapters: on other models; the PDE model; and the scenarios. The PDE simulation model combines multi-state population projection; a semi-equilibrium input-output model; and a water and agriculture model. The model is used to make an historical scenario and future scenarios of the case country. This dual approach combines the detail and the nuances which are visible to the human mind's interpretation of a field of Facts with the mathematical consistency that the computer contributes. A study of Cape Verde provides insights to the role of emigration, remittances and foreign aid in development. It also analyzes the effects of having a pool of fixed renewable natural resources (rain-water) and of competition in an economy that is largely determined by external forces. It shows some dynamics of limitation that can be over-looked in the study of larger countries, but which are present in some form in every region