The Importance of Education in Future Population. Global Trends and Case Studies on Cape Verde, Sudan, and Tunisia

Education is a central issue in the complex process of development, for it has been found to be related to fertility and hence population growth, to the status of women, to labor force skills, as well as to cultural and infrastructural development in general. This paper consists of two main parts. The first examines the role of education and reviews school enrollment patterns in the world during the last 30 years. We deduce from this review some general patterns of enrollment increase and gender differential. The second part presents multi-state population projections by educational level and the resulting adult educational attainment, fertility levels and population growth. This is done through three case studies on the countries of Cape Verde, Sudan and Tunisia. The projection exercise shows some important dynamics of education and fertility change. The benefits to countries who have taken great strides to increase enrollment with superficially disappointing results to date will become obvious in the future. This may lead to some unexpected fertility declines and other changes associated with higher education. Adult levels of education have a long momentum and education increases in the adult population are non-linear. This is an important aspect when defining scenarios for future population growth