Trends in Global Motorized Mobility. The Past 30 Years and Implications for the Next Century

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, it provides a data set of global and regional passenger traffic volume between 1960 and 1990 by the four major motorized transport modes -- cars, buses, railways, and aircraft -- for 11 world regions. Such a data set has never been compiled before. Second, it forecasts global long term trends in motorized mobility and future modes of transport. The underlying method, pioneered for use in urban traffic planning and never before applied to global forecasts, is based on the assumption that the average user of the transport systems invests fixed budgets of time and money for transportation services. Third, the paper discusses the implications of increasing transport services on energy use because more rapid and flexible modes of transport (e.g. aircraft) are more energy intensive than the slower forms they replace