Conclusions and evaluation

The changing demographic structure of populations in industrialized countries has a number of socioeconomic consequences, among which that for social expenditures has attracted most attention in recent years. An important factor here is the marked age-dependency of social expenditures. Although an ageing population may have implications for aspects such as economic growth, aggregate demand, the labour force, and income distribution, the problem of resources necessary in the future for maintaining current levels of living among the elderly in developed countries, in particular in the long term, has probably most often been an issue of concern to policy makers and scientists (Myers, 1993). In 1985, almost nine per cent of GDP in OECD-countries was spent on public pensions (OECD, 1988a), and the substantial rise in both the number and proportion of the elderly in most industrialized countries is likely to have a major upward effect on this share. Indeed, whereas OECD-projections indicate a twenty per cent rise in social expenditure spending during the period 1980–2040, the growth in public pension expenditures alone may be as large as almost 80 per cent (OECD, 1988b)