Comparison of Two Models of the Austrian Forest Sector

The paper presents two different modelling approaches for the Austrian forest sector. While the ATM (Austrian Trade Model) is a normative optimization model, based on the Global Trade Model developed at IIASA, the FOHOW (Simulation Model of the Austrian Forest Sector) is a descriptive simulation model, written in the Dynamo simulation language. ATM and FOHOW also differ in scope, with ATM being a global model covering the whole world (nine separate regions with Austria as the center) and FOHOW being basically a national model for Austria. Both models include the whole forest sector from timber growth to paper consumption. Thus the level of detail is naturally low. The ATM deals with fourteen, the FOHOW with nine different products ranging from raw materials (e.g. roundwood) to final products (e.g. paper). The models can be used mainly for long-term policy analysis ("what-if" questions) rather than for forecasting purposes. While an ATM-run starts at 1980, a FOHOW-run already begins in 1965; both end at 2030. Beside a base scenario, several scenarios were tested in parallel for both models under similar assumptions. The results of a selected number of scenario-runs are presented. The paper closes with a discussion of model strengths and weaknesses in terms of implementation, conceptual issues and potential for improvements