Global Energy CO2 Projections

Once again, energy has become the focus of many national and international studies. But instead of concentrating on the energy resources and their depletion, which was the main point of the energy-related studies following the energy crises in the 19708, the scope and direction of the long-term energy research activities is presently determined by climatic changes and risks to mankind and environment associated with the operation of energy systems. There are many uncertainties related to this problem, from energy demand assessments, especially in the developing world, to the rate of restructuring energy supply in view of the pressing necessity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate or postpone future climatic changes. Available results in this area obtained elsewhere are still inconsistent, incomparable and hardly justified; and there is no clear understanding on how to combine the needs for improving life standards in the developing world with an increasing population and the inevitable growth of energy demand. This is the reason why USA recently resumed the energy research activity with a major emphasis on climatic changes and possible measures towards low-emission energy systems. This working paper contains first results of IIASA's approach to solving the problem. The paper demonstrates the impact of different strategies with regard to the energy-economy development and the reshaping of the global energy system to reduce CO2 emissions until the middle of the next century. The author shows that, in order to alleviate the negative impacts of energy systems on the climate, it will be necessary to undertake tremendous efforts to improve the energy use efficiency, to drastically change the primary energy mix, and, at the same time, to take action to reduce greenhouse emissions from other sources and increase the CO2 sink through enhanced reforestation. The paper stresses once more the utmost importance of treating climate changes as a genuinely global problem, whose resolution requires international cooperation