Guidance for Decision

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is preparing a "Handbook of Systems Analysis," which will appear in three volumes: Volume 1, "Overview," is aimed at a widely varied audience of producers and users of systems analysis; Volume 2, "Methods," is aimed at systems analysts who need basic knowledge of methods in which they are not expert; the volume contains introductory overviews of such methods; Volume 3, "Cases," contains descriptions of actual systems analyses that illustrate the methods and diversity of systems analysis. Volume 1 will have ten chapters: 1) The context, nature, and use of systems analysis; 2) Applied systems analysis: a genetic approach; 3) Examples of systems analysis; 4) The method of applied systems analysis: finding a solution; 5) Formulating problems for systems analysis; 6) Generating alternatives for systems analysis; 7) Estimating and predicting consequences; 8) Guidance for decision; 9) Implementation; 10) Principles of good practice. To these ten chapters will be added a glossary of systems analysis terms and a bibliography of basic books in the field. This Working Paper is the current draft of Chapter 8. A word about the format of this Working Paper. In order to make the text of each chapter easily amended, it has been entered into the IIASA computer, from which the current version can be reproduced in a few minute's time whenever needed. This Working Paper was produced from the version current on the date shown on each page