Environmental characterisation to guide breeding decisions in a changing climate.

Substantial evidence now exists suggesting that agricultural yields will have to increase significantly in order to meet food needs during the 21st century. One such way of increasing yields is to develop high yielding cultivars through crop improvement. This Working Paper summarises the results of a CCAFS project named Target Population of Environments (TPE). The project aimed at providing actionable information to crop breeders and, therefore, inform breeding decisions. We developed and applied a methodology for classifying crop growing environments, determining stress profiles and, finally, assessing the potential benefit of improved breeding practice. We present two contrasting case studies, one for upland rice in central Brazil and another for common beans in Goiás (Brazil). Analyses are also currently being conducted for lowland irrigated rice in Colombia, and plans to conduct research on rice in sub-Saharan Africa. Results of the TPE project are publicly available in the form of dynamic maps and graphs at http://www.ccafs-tpe.org.bitstream/item/136525/1/abh.pd