Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Protected Areas: A Case Study of Land Snails in Madeira Island. GI_Forum|GI_Forum 2015 – Geospatial Minds for Society|

Global climate is constantly changing, and such changes have irreversible impacts on the fauna and flora at all scales. Some progress has been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on some vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understanding the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of predictive models, important changes in the species’ suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest land snails, which are highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses of their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models, and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment