The Role of Institutional Credit in the Agricultural Development of Pakistan

There has been a consensus among Pakistani policy-makers since the early 1970s that the shift from a resource-based to a science-based agriculture can be facilitated through the availability of agricultural credit. The official statistics on the disbursement of agricultural credit bear testimony to this behalf. A perusal of Thble 1 shows clearly that while other inputs such as fertilizer offtake, the availability of improved seed, water and tractors grew at rates ranging from 3 percent to 15 percent per annum over the period from 1971-72 to 1986-87, the disbursement Of institutional credit to the rural sector of Pakistan grew at an impressive 28 percent. It is interesting to note that while agricultural production, measured as an index with base year 1960, grew at only 3 percent, the ratio of institutional credit to agricultural GNP grew from 0.7 percent in 1971-72 to over 12 percent in 1986-87. 1\\'0 studies have recently appeared in The Pakistan Development Review that highlight important yet diverse aspects of the role of institutional credit in the agriculture development of Pakistan. The first study [Zuberi (1989)] stated that "the strategy for agricultural development in the country has been based on greater utilization of 'high pay-off' low-cost technology. The government advanced loans through fmancial institutions to make it possible for the farmers to acquire this technology". This study, however, using a Cobb-Douglas type production function and time-series data found that specifications which included institutional credit as an independent variable offered meaningless results. Based on the fact that 70 percent of total institutional credit disbursed was for the purchase of seed and fertilizer, the author chose expenditure on these categories as a proxy not only for credit but also for capital and using this and labour obtained significant estimates