Leverage and productivity growth in emerging economies: Is there a threshold effect?

While credit is essential for investment, innovation and economic growth, there are risks to unfettered credit booms. The present paper provides an innovative micro-economic approach to identify the threshold leverage beyond which corporate indebtedness becomes “excessive”. In particular, the paper hypothesizes a non-linear relationship in that moderate leverage could boost growth while very high leverage could restrict total factor productivity growth, through increased likelihood of financial distress and bankruptcy. Estimates of a threshold model for a group of emerging CEE countries confirm the non-linear relationship, after controlling for various firm, industry and financial market characteristics.Financial support from ESRC grant RES-062-23-0986 is gratefully acknowledge