Estimating the emigration rate of fish stocks from marine sanctuaries using tag-recovery data

A critical process in assessing the impact of marine sanctuaries on fish stocks is the movement of fish out into surrounding fished areas. A method is presented for estimating the yearly rate of emigration of animals from a protected (“no-take”) zone. Movement rates for exploited populations are usually inferred from tag-recovery studies, where tagged individuals are released into the sea at known locations and their location of recapture is reported by fishermen. There are three drawbacks, however, with this method of estimating movement rates: 1) if animals are tagged and released into both protected and fished areas, movement rates will be overestimated if the prohibition on recapturing tagged fish later from within the protected area is not made explicit; 2) the times of recapture are random; and 3) an unknown proportion of tagged animals are recaptured but not reported back to researchers. An estimation method is proposed which addresses these three drawbacks of tag-recovery data. An analytic formula and an associated double-hypergeometric likelihood method were derived. These two estimators of emigration rate were applied to tag recoveries from southern rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) released into a sanctuary and into its surrounding fished area in South Australia