Climate change effects on carbonation-induced corrosion and damage risks of RC infrastructure in China

Climate change may increase atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature, change relative humidity(RH),and consequently change RC infrastructures’ surrounding environment. Especially in the long run, the decline of the safety, serviceability and durability of RC structures may be accelerated. Carbonation induced corrosion damage of RC infrastructure in Xiamen and Shaoguan under a changing climate is investigated for time period 2010 ~ 2100. The projection of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, temperature and RH in both cities are based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The time-dependent reliability analysis was conducted by Monte Carlo simulation and includes the uncertainty of dimensions,material properties, climate projections,and predictive models. The corrosion damage risks of RC structures are represented by the probability of severe cracking of concrete cover. Results show that climate change may increase mean carbonation depth by 8mm by 2100. Moreover, carbonation-induced damage risk for RC buildings in temperate areas can be increased by 12% ~ 19%. This research provides a reference for impacts of future climate change on RC structures and development of climate adaptation strategies