Modelling stream sediment concentration: an assessment of enhanced rainfall and storm frequency

Rainfall patterns have a well recognised effect on erosion, sediment transport and water quality. In recent years, there has been a focus on understanding the impact of changing climate on rainfall and storm patterns both globally and in Australia with research directed to examine how the global hydrological cycle will respond to climate change. This study investigates the effect of different rainfall patterns on erosion and resultant water quality in a small study catchment in the Northern Territory, Australia. Rainfall projections for the study area indicate an increase in storm activity but there has been little assessment of this variability and its impact on resultant water quality. Numerical modelling studies are an essential means of assessing hydrological and geomorphological impacts of changing rainfall patterns resulting from climate variability. Here, a numerical model that simulates erosion, deposition and water quality (CAESAR) is used to assess several different rainfall scenarios over a 1000 year modelled period. The model results reveal that increased rainfall amount and intensity increases sediment transport rates but predicted annual sediment concentration (total load) was variable and non-linear but within predicted ranges for the catchment and region. In terms of impact of increased rainfall and storms on sediment output, the more frequent returns of high intensity rainfall increases sediment output but average concentration may reduce as a result of the increased discharge. Subtle thresholds may operate as a result of both external and internal forcings where differences in rainfall events and resultant sediment delivery produce rapid change in erosion rates and patterns producing autogenic adjustments within the catchment. The study provides a sensitivity analysis of both model parameterisation and differing rainfall scenarios on long-term water quality as well as a method for assessing the impact of rainfall variability on catchment scale hydrology