Probabilistic terrorism risk assessment and risk acceptability for infrastructure protection

In the decade since the events of 9/11 there has been renewed interest in understanding the risks of terrorism, and the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. Since there is uncertainty associated with terrorist threats, structural and system response, effectiveness of counter-terrorism and protective measures, and terrorists’ ability to infl ict damage, then there is clearly a need for probabilistic approaches to assessing and mitigating terrorism risks. The paper reviews research projects related to probabilistic terrorism risk assessment and risk acceptability for infrastructure protection currently underway at The University of Newcastle. The review of probabilistic risk assessments are given for: (i) IED design and initiation, and predicting variability of time-pressure load history on infrastructure; (ii) reinforced-concrete structural systems; (iii) full-body scanners used at airports in the United States; and (iv) buildings subject to a terrorist vehicle-borne improvised explosive device. The illustrative examples will highlight research capabilities at the University of Newcastle and identify research challenges to be faced in the future