Solar signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: Effects of Atmosphere-ocean Coupling

The surface response to the 11-yr solar cycle is assessed in ensemble simulations of the 20th century climate performed in the framework of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP5). A lead/lag multiple linear regression analysis identifies a multi-model mean (MMM) global mean surface warming of about 0.07 K lagging the solar cycle by one to two years on average. The anomalous warming penetrates to approximately the first 80–100 m depth in the ocean. Solar signals in the troposphere show a similar time lag of one to two years and the strongest MMM warming is simulated in the tropics above 300 hPa. At the surface, the MMM response in a subset of models that show statistically significant global mean warming (CMIP5-SIG95) is characterized by an anomalous warming in the west equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Arctic, at one to two years after solar maximum. The Arctic warming is twice as strong as the global mean response and appears in winter months only. The surface warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is related to dynamical/thermodynamical processes. Different increase rates of global mean precipitation and atmospheric water vapor in response to a warmer surface lead to a weaker Walker circulation and anomalous westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific in years following solar maximum. Owing to atmosphere–ocean coupling, the anomalous westerly winds cool the subsurface and warm the surface in the western equatorial Pacific by ∼ 0.14 K. The CMIP5-SIG95 MMM surface warming in the equatorial Pacific and Arctic is weak but qualitatively similar compared to solar signals in the HadCRUT4 dataset