Simulating urban growth scenarios based on ecological security pattern: a case study in Quanzhou, China

In recent decades, the ecological security pattern (ESP) has drawn increasing scientific attention against the backdrop of rapid urbanization and worsening ecological environment. Despite numerous achievements in identifying and constructing the ecological security pattern, limited attention has been paid on applying ESP to predict urban growth. To bridge the research gap, this paper took Quanzhou, China as a study case and incorporated the identified ESP into an urban growth simulation with three distinct scenarios. Following the “ecological source–ecological corridor–ecological security pattern” paradigm, the ESP identification was carried out from four single aspects (i.e., water, geology, biodiversity, and recreation) into three levels (i.e., basic ESP, intermediate ESP, and optimal ESP). Grounded in an equally weighted superposition algorithm, the four single ESPs were combined as an integrated ESP (IESP) with three levels. Taking IESP as an exclusion element, urban growth simulation in 2030 was completed with thee SLEUTH model. Drawing on the three levels of IESP, our urban growth simulation contained three scenarios. In terms of urban sprawl distribution coupled with urban growth rate, an optimal urban growth scenario is recommended in this paper to balance both urban development and eco-environment protection. We argue that our ESP-based urban growth simulation results shed new light on predicting urban sprawl and have the potential to inform planners and policymakers to contribute to more environmentally-friendly urban development