Intentional weight loss as a predictor of type 2 diabetes occurrence in a general adult population

Introduction Observational and intervention studies have verified that weight loss predicts a reduced type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. At the population level, knowledge on the prediction of self-report intentional weight loss (IWL) on T2D incidence is, however, sparse. We studied the prediction of self-report IWL on T2D incidence during a 15-year follow-up in a general adult population. Research design and methods The study sample from the representative Finnish Health 2000 Survey comprised 4270 individuals, aged 30-69 years. IWL was determined with questions concerning dieting attempts and weight loss during the year prior to baseline. Incident T2D cases during a 15-year follow-up were drawn from national health registers. The strength of the association between IWL and T2D incidence was estimated with the Cox model. Results During the follow-up, 417 incident cases of T2D occurred. IWL predicted an increased risk of T2D incidence (HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.87, p=0.008) in a multivariable model. In interaction analyses comparing individuals with and without IWL, a suggestively elevated risk emerged in men, the younger age group, among less-educated people and in individuals with unfavorable values in several lifestyle factors. Conclusions Self-report IWL may predict an increased risk of T2D in long-term, probably due to self-implemented IWL tending to fail. The initial prevention of weight gain and support for weight maintenance after weight loss deserve greater emphasis in order to prevent T2D.Peer reviewe