The Analysis of Systemic Risk of Commercial Banks in China Using CoVaR

This study assesses the systemic risk of 14 listed commercial banks in China using CoVaR method during 2008 to 2013. A quantile regression is used to calculate the evolution of tail event. Five different variables are used to capture the tail risk. The systemic risk in this paper is measured by the growth rate of marketed valued total assets. Moreover, the future systemic risk is forecasted by forward ∆CoVaR model as well. Panel data is used to do regression on lagged bank characteristics. In the finding part, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China owns the biggest systemic risk while Pingan Bank has the smallest one. The individual risk of a bank is not consistent with its contribution to the systemic risk. The fluctuation of systemic risk of China banks reflects the impact of financial crisis and European debt crisis. According to the analysis of forward ∆CoVaR, it shows that individual risk, leverage, size of banks and market to book equity ratio are significant. They contribute to different degree of future systemic risk. This paper shows the status of China banks systemic risk for macroprudential regulation countercyclically. Meanwhile, it gives regulator an instruction of bail out when real crisis happens