Task representations, strategy variability, and base-rate neglect

The authors present a new model called RCCL (pronounced "ReCyCLe"; Represent the task, Construct a set of action strategies consistent with the task representation, Choose from among those strategies according to their success rates, and Learn new success rates for the strategies based on experience). The model explains the different ways in which people combine base-rate and case-specific cues to produce choice. It also makes additional predictions regarding variability in people's choices over time. Experiment 1 tested 58 college-age students in a problem-solving task and showed that task representations can be influenced by feedback from the environment, producing changes in base rate and cue sensitivity. Experiment 2 tested 80 college-age students in a delayed match-to-sample task and showed that variations in the format of a task can lead to different representations, which in turn produce much different base-rate and cue sensitivities. Moreover, both experiments showed systematic variability in choice over time in ways predicted by the model