The Brazilian maritime cruise crisis

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.O setor de cruzeiros marítimos no Brasil passou por um período de crescimento exponencial na década passada, transportando mais de 800 mil passageiros por temporada pela costa brasileira. A partir da temporada de 2010/2011, observa-se uma tendência de estabilização desse mercado, quando se nota índices de crescimento mais modestos. Desde a temporada 2012/13 o setor está vivendo uma fase de decréscimo inédita, enquanto o mercado mundial não para de crescer, a atividade no Brasil já perdeu 32% de seus passageiros. A queda no número de cruzeiros marítimos no Brasil prejudica a economia como um todo, o fluxo de turistas diminuiu nas cidades-escala, o impacto econômico, gerado pela atividade com a movimentação em bares e restaurantes, fica menos visível, a quantidade de passeios turísticos também são afetados negativamente e a geração de emprego se retrai. Segundo a associação das operadoras, CLIA Abremar, os motivos são os custos altos e a infraestrutura precária no país, que têm afugentado as empresas, que preferem levar suas embarcações para destinos mais estruturados e mais baratos. Esta dissertação objetivou analisar a crise dos cruzeiros marítimos e fornecer informações detalhadas para os tomadores de decisão. A revisão bibliográfica indicou que trata se de uma situação muito complexa, tornando necessária uma avaliação detalhada, envolvendo especialistas dos setores público e privado. Foi elaborado um modelo de avaliação dos gargalos do setor, possibilitando a análise dos resultados com métodos estatísticos descritivos. Os resultados da investigação revelaram que a situação atual é uma combinação de gargalos não resolvidos, fatores de economia de escala e processos naturais. Concluiu-se que apenas esforços envolvendo todos os stakeholders poderão rejuvenescer este setor turístico tão importante.Since the birth of the cruise line industry in the 18th century, the sector has experienced steady growth well into the 21st century. As a matter of fact, the sector has never seen any stagnation or decline since CLIA (Cruise Lines International Association, representative body of more than 90% of all cruise lines worldwide) started counting passenger numbers in the late 20th century. Member cruise lines transported an impressive 22 million passengers worldwide in 2014 and the outlook for 2015 is even better. CLIA expects to add another 1 million passengers until December to reach the 23 million milestone. Until 2012, Brazil appeared to be bound for unstoppable growth as well. The country had just reached the 800.000 passenger mark, and the sector was already dreaming about reaching 2 million passengers. Every renowned cruise line in the world wanted a piece of the Brazilian market share. Only 3 years later, the outlook has changed dramatically. Passenger numbers have dropped sharply from 800.000 to 550.000, which amounts to a 32% decrease, and the number of vessels in Brazilian waters has been cut in half from 20 to only 10 cruise ships. For the upcoming season, only 4 cruise lines are sending their ships to Brazil, Costa Cruise Lines, MSC Cruises, Pullmantur and Royal Caribbean International. CLIA Abremar, the association representing the cruise lines in Brazil, was quick to blame the Brazilian government for the development that caught the country by surprise. In 2013. According to Amaral (2013), a lack of infrastructure and the high operatiing cost in Brazil had chased the cruise lines away, taking their ships to more structured and cheaper destinations. While infrastructure and costs are certainly a fundamental part of the Brazilian crisis, limiting the scope to only these 2 factors would be wrong. An in-depth investigation brought to light a broad variety of factors influencing the decrease of the Brazilian market share. With the input of stakeholders from the public and from the private sector, 10 obstacles were identified. Port and tourism authorities and specialists were asked to evaluate the impact of each item. By applying frequencies to the evaluation results, it was possible to classify the impact of each obstacle and rank them according to their evaluations. The evaluation clearly showed that one is dealing with a great number of factors with a negative influence on the cruise sector in Brazil, rather than just one or two main culprits for the crisis. A combined effort by all stakeholders is urgently needed to revert this scenario and to maintain this country, which possesses a stunning 7.000 kilometer coastline and excellent climatic conditions, on the international cruise map