Positron emission tomography has a high negative predictive value for progression or early relapse for patients with residual disease after first-line chemotherapy in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

In the HD15 trial of the German Hodgkin Study Group, the negative predictive value (NPV) of positron emission tomography (PET) using [(18)F]-fluorodeoxyglucose in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) was evaluated. A total of 817 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive BEACOPP-based chemotherapy. After completion of chemotherapy, residual disease measuring more than or equal to 2.5 cm in diameter was assessed by PET in 311 patients. The NPV of PET was defined as the proportion of PET(-) patients without progression, relapse, or irradiation within 12 months after PET review panel. The progression-free survival was 96% for PET(-) patients (95% confidence interval [CI], 94%-99%) and 86% for PET(+) patients (95% CI, 78%-95%, P = .011). The NPV for PET in this analysis was 94% (95% CI, 91%-97%). Thus, consolidation radiotherapy can be omitted in PET(-) patients with residual disease without increasing the risk for progression or early relapse compared with patients in complete remission. The impact of this finding on the overall survival at 5 years must be awaited. Until then, response adapted therapy guided by PET for HL patients seems to be a promising approach that should be further evaluated in clinical trials. This trial is registered at http://isrctn.org study as #ISRCTN32443041