Assessing corporate risk: a PD model based on credit ratings

Trabalho apresentado na 13th FRAP - Finance, Risk and Accounting Perspectives Conference, evento promovido pela Universidade de Cambridge, Inglaterra, nos dias 19 e 20 de novembro de 2013. Bibliografia: p. 8-9.This paper proposes a model which tries to mimic agencies corporate ratings. Using financial data for more than 1,400 firms across several years, a model based on financial statements was estimated and yielded reasonable accuracy for companies of diverse sizes and industries. The model was able to predict ratings within 3 notches of accuracy for about 90% of the cases