The spatiotemporal aspects of predation on the Cape gannet Morus capensis population at the Lambert’s Bay gannet colony, Western Cape, South Africa

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds with 29% of seabird species at some risk of extinction. As a result of multiple human-induced threats, seabird species including the Cape gannet Morus capensis which is endemic to southern Africa population experience significant declines and is now classified as Endangered. The Cape gannet faces predation threats from a variety of different species. The current predators of concern at Lambert’s Bay gannet colony are both the Cape fur seal Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus and the Kelp gull Larus dominancus. The former predates on fledglings and the latter predates on eggs. In the 2005/06 breeding season the entire Cape gannet population deserted the Lambert’s Bay gannet colony due to predation by the Cape fur seal. Although the Cape gannets have subsequently recovered to approximately 8000 pairs, seal predation on Cape gannet fledglings continues, together with predation by Kelp gulls. This has caused concern over the impact of predation on this species at the Lambert’s Bay colony, particularly given the species’ conservation status, its small breeding range and its current population trend. CapeNature, the conservation agency involved at this colony has been monitoring and managing the predation on Cape gannets and are interested in evaluating the success of their efforts. Therefore the aim of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal aspects of predation on the Cape gannet population at Lambert’s Bay gannet colony. When examining the influence of fish availability on predation intensity, we found that in years with an increase in fish biomass there was a decrease in predation probability by Cape fur seals. This increase in fish biomass not only led to decreased predation on the fledglings it also led to increased breeding success of the Cape gannets. In determining the effect of predation within the Cape gannet breeding colony we found that the probability of predation by Kelp gulls decreased in years with increased adult gannet density. Indirectly, Cape gannet population growth should lead to a decrease in Kelp gull predation as a higher gannet density increases the risk of injury to the Kelp gulls. This suggests that if Cape gannet populations continue to decline, they may become increasingly vulnerable to Kelp gull predation which can result in a further population decline. In terms of past management actions, the selective culling of predatory Cape fur seals and Kelp gulls, was evaluated. It was found that in the years in which culling of Cape fur seals and Kelp gulls was implemented, a decrease in predation was observed. This indicated that culling reduced predation in the short-term. Predation is inevitable, but due to the Cape gannet’s conservation status we suggest that additional, long-term, and more sustainable methods to reduce predation should be explored. Our research emphasises the need for improving food availability to Cape gannets as food security is paramount to their long-term survival and population growth. Colony management in isolation from other management strategies, is not efficient for conserving a species. We therefore suggest that sound management of predation at the terrestrial habitats are required but that effective management of fisheries are also required for the successful conservation of the Cape gannet. Food security for Cape gannets could be improved by, for example, establishing some ways that we suggest improving the food security for Cape gannets would be to establish Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) with dynamic boundaries around Cape gannet colonies, and to have locate the MPAs close to breeding and foraging hotspots where these areas are closed to fishing thus reducing the competition between commercial fisheries and marine predators, such as the Cape gannet. Another way to improve food security for the gannets are to promote the efforts of focussing on developing and implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries management in which fishing quotas account for the needs of marine predators. The findings of this study have not only aided the understanding of the dynamics of predation on the Cape gannets and highlighted the extent that predation takes place on them but can also guide future management decisions regarding predation on this endemic and endangered species