Democratic Gains in the 2006 Congressional Elections?

The congressional elections will be held shortly and the stakes are high — control over the House and Senate during President Bush’s last two years in office. One of the nation’s premier experts on congressional elections, Professor Gary Jacobson from the University of California, San Diego, discussed the likely outcomes of the elections. Tom Horner of Himle Horner, Inc. and U of M Law School Co-Dean Guy Charles offered commentary and reactions. GARY JACOBSON Gary Jacobson is a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. Jacobson's field of interest is American national politics, with a subfield focus on Congress and congressional elections. He received a Ph.D. from Yale University and a B.A. from Stanford University. He is the author of Money in Congressional Elections; The Politics of Congressional Elections (currently in its 6th edition); and The Electoral Origins of Divided Government; and co-author of Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections, American Parties in Decline, and The Logic of American Politics. His current research is on the electoral basis of partisan polarization in Congress. He has served on the Council of the American Political Science Association and as its Treasurer. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. From 1985 through 1993, he served on the Board of Overseers of National Election Studies, which designs the biennial election surveys conducted by the University of Michigan's Center for Political Studies. During 1990-91, he was a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. GUY-URIEL E. CHARLES Guy-Uriel E. Charles became a Co-Dean of the University of Minnesota Law School on June 1, 2006. Dean Charles joined the Law School in the Fall of 2000. He clerked for The Honorable Damon J. Keith of the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. While at the University of Michigan, he was the Editor-in-Chief of the Michigan Journal of Race & Law. From 1995-2000, he was a graduate student in political science at the University of Michigan. Co-Dean Charles teaches and writes in the areas of constitutional law, civil procedure, election law, law and politics, and race. His articles have appeared in Constitutional Commentary, The Michigan Law Review, The Michigan Journal of Race and Law, The Georgetown Law Journal, The Journal of Politics, The California Law Review, The North Carolina Law Review, among others. He is a frequent television, print, and radio commentator on issues relating to constitutional law, election law, campaign finance, redistricting, politics, and race. THOMAS HORNER Thomas Horner is a shareholder of Himle Horner, Inc. Before forming Himle Horner, Horner was vice president and general manager of the Minnesota office of Hill and Knowlton. Prior to Hill and Knowlton, Horner worked for former U.S. Senator Dave Durenberger (R-MN). He joined Durenberger as press secretary during Durenberger's first campaign for the U.S. Senate (1978). Later, he was named chief of staff, a position he held until 1985. Before the Durenberger campaign, Horner was managing editor of Sun Newspapers, Inc., where he supervised the editorial content and production of 16 suburban newspapers. Horner is a native of Minneapolis and a graduate of the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul. Horner is a frequent speaker on public affairs, public relations and crisis management. He also is a regular public affairs commentator for Minnesota Public Radio and "Almanac," a statewide public affairs program