Effects of climate, land management, and sulfur deposition on soil base cation supply in national forests of the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Forest soils having low exchangeable calcium (Ca) and other nutrient base cation (BC) reserves may induce nutrient deficiencies in acid-sensitive plants and impact commercially important tree species. Past and future depletion of soil BC in response to acidic sulfur (S) deposition, forest management, and climate change alter the health and productivity of forest trees. This study used a process model (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments [MAGIC]) to address a number of questions related to soil BC status for a group of 65 streams and their watersheds in the southern Blue Ridge physiographic province of the southern Appalachian Mountains. Future S deposition to the study watersheds used for the Base Scenario was specified according to proposed reductions in S emissions at the time of this study, representing a reduction of 42 % of ambient S deposition by 2020. Twenty additional simulations were considered, reflecting four alternate S deposition scenarios (6 %, 58 %, 65 %, and 78 % reduction), and various changes in timber harvest, temperature, and precipitation. Base Scenario soil exchangeable Ca and % base saturation showed decreasing trends from 1860 to 2100. Changes in tree harvesting had the largest effect on stream sum of base cations (SBC) and soil BC supply. Each of the scenario projections indicated that median year 2100 soil exchangeable Ca will be at least 20 % lower than pre-industrial values. The simulations suggested that substantial mass loss of soil BC has already occurred since pre-industrial times. Nearly the same magnitude of BC loss is expected to occur over the next 145 years, even under relatively large additional future reductions in S deposition