Import Source Reallocation and US Manufacturing Employment, 1972-2001

Examining the US manufacturing sector, we focus on the potential employment effects of shifts in import sources from relatively high- to low-income nations. Data for 384 6-digit NAICS US manufacturing industries that span the years 1972–2001 are utilized. Increased import penetration is found to reduce both production and non-production employment; however, such job loss is countered by export-led job creation. Extending the literature, we report that reallocation of import sources from high- to low-income nations reduces manufacturing employment, and when shifts in import sources coincide with rising import penetration the result is an acceleration of job loss