A soil temperature model for predicting the overwintering emergence of Heliothis zea and Heliothis virescens (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae)

Typescript (photocopy).An existing, physically based, one dimensional numerical model for soil temperature and soil water content was adapted and validated with experimental data on soil temperature in the upper 100mm of the profile. A simpler soil temperature model was derived which provides hourly estimates of soil temperature from daily meteorological data that are widely available. The simpler model was combined with a biological model for emergence of overwintering pupae of the insect pests, Heliothis zea (Boddie) and Heliothis virescens (F.), to predict the timing of the overwintering generation of these pests in the spring. The field emergence model was used to test the effect of different meteorological variables on the predicted pattern of emergence