The Determinants of Rising Female Age At Marriage: Taiwan, 1905-1976.

Female age at first marriage has risen substantially in a number of East Asian nations in this century. Similar nuptiality changes appear to be underway in several nations in Southeast Asia, North Africa, and Latin America, suggesting that the nuptiality transition experienced in East Asia may occur in other societies where a young age at marriage for women has been traditional. The large contribution of the postponement of female marriage to the fertility declines in East Asia has been well-documented; the potential for similar impact on fertility levels elsewhere remains considerable. In this dissertation the determinants of nuptiality change in one East Asian nation, Taiwan, are examined. Female mean age at marriage in Taiwan has risen five years since the beginning of this century, two years between 1956 and 1976 alone. This rapid change in recent decades has been accompanied by a reduction in the areal variation in nuptiality levels observed in previous periods, an indication of the societal-wide change underway. After consideration of descriptive accounts of marriage arrangement in traditional Taiwanese society and contemporary changes, a set of hypotheses regarding the causes for the break from previous patterns of early female marriage are proposed. These hypotheses are tested in multivariate analysis of areal-unit data for the period 1961 to 1976. The relationships posited are tested both cross-sectionally and over time, in the latter case using several methods which permit explicit examination of nuptiality change. This areal-unit analysis is performed on a data-set representing the entire isl and and on a subset of units consisting of the more agricultural areas of the isl and . The analysis generally confirms the hypothesized relationships. Several variables emerge as critical in the determination of the nuptiality change: Level of female educational attainment tests as a powerful explanatory variable under a variety of analytic approaches. The sex ratios of marriage-age adults is also a strong predictor, with nuptiality changes over short periods of time especially responsive to this marriage market factor. The non-agricultural character of the male labor force in an area has indirect effects on female nuptiality levels, due to the dependence of other variables which impinge directly on female nuptiality on the economic character of an area. Net migration to areas is associated with nuptiality levels and nuptiality changes over time; specifically, net emigration results in later female marriage. The nature of the relationship is complex, and its estimation is affected by the measures of migration and age at marriage employed. Level of female non-agricultural employment tests as a weak predictor of female age at marriage cross-sectionally and over time; the net effect of this variable is estimated to be much smaller than the effect of female educational attainment. The analysis documents that ethnicity effects on female nuptiality persist during this period. Hakka women marry later on average than other Taiwanese women. The evidence indicates that the presence of the Mainl and er population affected both male and female nuptiality, especially during the mid-1960s when the Mainl and ers actively entered the marriage market. A brief examination of male age-structure effects on female nuptiality confirms the hypotheses of Easterlin and others: A male age-structure weighted towards the young adult ages is associated with postponement of female marriage. The relationship emerges as quite powerful in cross-sectional estimations. It also persists in the time series analysis. This finding should be treated skeptically. In the context of the rapid economic growth and profound economic transformation which have characterized Taiwan in this period, age-structure effects on opportunities for young adults should be less important than the effects of other economic and social variables.PhDDemographyUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/157705/1/8017227.pd