Estimation of a Microeconomic Model of Contraceptive Use in Rural Mexico.

This dissertation addresses the problem of empirical estimation of the determinants of current contraceptive use among women of fertile ages and exposed to the risk of conception, in rural Mexico. The effect of socioeconomic variables on the choice of contraceptive efficiency is examined. Variables representing costs, income, differences in fecundity, and other socioeconomic factors are evaluated. A sub-sample of women of fertile ages and exposed to the risk of conception is taken from the Rural Mexican Survey, 1981. Analysis is performed for the entire sub-sample of women, and separately for each of three age groups. The determinants of contraceptive use are estimated using a multivariate regression approach, treating the desire for another conception as endogenous to the contraceptive decision. In the empirical results, the reduced-form of the desire for conception equation is estimated first. Evidence suggests that older, more educated women, with higher parity, having greater proportions of male children, and living in communities with higher percentages of ever-users of contraception, have a lower desire for an additional conception. Women who suffered a recent child or fetal loss, and those whose partners work in agriculture have a greater desire for an additional conception. The results from the contraceptive efficiency equation show that women with a lower desire for an additional conception use more effective methods of contraception. Other variables relevant in explaining contraceptive efficiency are: current breastfeeding practices, the percentage of women ever-users of contraception in the community, the occurrence of a recent loss and whether or not the woman's partner works in agriculture. These results hold for the entire sample. Across the board, availability of family planning methods and sources is not a significant determinant of contraceptive use, nor is it significant in determining the women's desire for an additional conception. A woman's level of education affects her desire for another conception, though not her contraceptive decision directly. Breastfeeding appears to be employed as a substitute for contraception. Statistical tests support the hypothesis that the desire for an additional conception is not exogenous to the contraceptive decision. This finding suggests that contraceptive use studies, which assume fertility plans are exogenous, would yield biased estimates of the effect of conception desire. Moreover, in such studies, the derived estimators of the effects of other socioeconomic variables on contraceptive use are biased. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)PhDEconomicsUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/161748/1/8801449.pd