The determinants of male age of retirement in Brazil.

Labor force participation rates of older men have been observed to fall substantially with economic development throughout the world. This thesis first reviews the theoretical explanations for such a phenomenon. Next, the enormous fall in male retirement ages between 1940 and 1980 is documented, and descriptive statistics are used tentatively to assess the relevance of several possible determinants in the Brazilian context. Income and wealth levels rose dramatically over the study period and could plausibly be the primary cause for the retirement transition. Social security coverage also exp and ed rapidly, and could explain much of the decline, especially during the 1970s. Systematic changes in the non-pecuniary characteristics of work could also provide an explanation, but, to the extent that these are measured by the sectoral and employment status composition of the labor force, trends in the data are somewhat inconsistent with this argument. Change in marital status and fertility behavior cannot have caused the decline. Due to a lack of data, it is impossible to evaluate the possible effects of changes in differential mortality by labor force participation, morbidity, social norms, and tastes for leisure on the older male labor force participation profile. The structure of the Brazilian public pension programs and labor laws in 1980 are examined. Returns-to-work calculations are used to demonstrate that the system potentially can cause large income and price effects on the age pattern of retirement in the urban formal sector. The impact of several possible determinants of retirement age are then estimated using the 3% sample of the 1980 demographic census. Evidence is found supporting the hypothesized effects of the social security system: insured workers have much higher retirement propensities, particularly at the ages predicted by the incentives found in the social security system. Imputed own labor earnings and educational attainment are shown to have little effect on retirement age. Employer and self-employed work status are associated with considerably lower retirement propensities. Employment in agriculture does not appear to substantially alter the probability of retirement, after controlling for other factors. However, agricultural workers display pronounced differences in retirement behavior by region, suggesting that there may have been a systematic worsening in the conditions of work in this sector, as perceived by older men, with economic development.PhDLabor economicsGerontologyDemographyUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/162337/1/9001668.pd