Determinants of regional fertility differences in Egypt.

This is a study of both the direct (proximate) and antecedent determinants of the difference in fertility between rural Lower and rural Upper Egypt and between urban Lower and urban Upper Egypt. Data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey and the 1976 Population census of Egypt are utilized. The methodology used derives from the analysis of covariance, regression decomposition, and the multilevel model. The results show that the fertility difference between rural Lower and rural Upper Egypt is attributable to regional differences in mean levels and fertility effects of the proximate variables, especially the mean levels of duration of marriage and the fertility effects of contraception. The mean regional fertility difference between urban Lower and urban Upper Egypt is attributable only to regional differences in mean levels of the proximate variables, especially duration of marriage and proportion of children born who died. The results also show that the mean levels of age at first marriage in rural and urban Upper Egypt are lower than the corresponding levels in Lower Egypt. This effect is associated with lower educational attainment and premarital work experience in Upper Egypt than in Lower Egypt. The higher proportion of children born who died in urban Upper than urban Lower Egypt is attributable to smaller proportions of educated women and husb and s in the former than the latter. In rural Upper Egypt there is a larger positive fertility effect of contraception which may be due to the lower extended use-effectiveness there than in rural Lower Egypt. The multilevel analysis incorporating both individual and community variables shows that, in rural Egypt, the village's average level of female education has a significant positive effect on the woman's age at first marriage, independent of individual-level effects.PhDDemographyUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/161959/1/8821633.pd