Stranačka identifikacija i granice stranačke mobilizacije u Hrvatskoj nakon 2000. godine

Rad istražuje razloge nastanka obrasca asimetrične stranačke mobilizacije u hrvatskom stranačkom sustavu nakon 1990. godine i pokušava povezati kretanje stranačke potpore s obrascem veza između stranaka i birača. U članku se polazi od nalaza da je biračka potpora HDZ-u kroz čitavo razdoblje nakon prvih izbora bila prilično stabilna, dok je potpora birača stranaka ljevice i centra bila vrlo promjenjiva. Razlog tome autor nalazi u tipu veza između stranaka i birača koje se primarno temelje na simbolima i vrijednostima oblikovanim kroz više desetljeća. Oni imaju vrlo stabilan utjecaj i otežavaju promjene biračkih lojalnosti. Asimetrični se obrazac mobilizacije javlja zato što se birači HDZ-a identificiraju sa strankom na osnovi vrijednosti i simbola koje povezuju sa samom strankom, dok se birači stranaka ljevice i centra više identifi ciraju s vrijednostima koje ove stranke manje ili više uspješno zastupaju. Empirijska analiza faktora koji oblikuju odnos prema strankama potvrđuje da najveći utjecaj imaju odnos prema religiji, povijesti i tradicionalnim vrijednostima. Međutim, analiza isto tako pokazuje da se važnost ovih faktora s vremenom mijenja i ovisi o obrascima koalicija između stranaka odnosno o porukama stranačkog vodstva.The article analyses the reasons behind the establishment of the asymmetrical pattern of mobilization of party support in the Croatian party system after 1990. It aims to asses to what extent linkages between parties and voters aff ect the volatility of electoral support. The argument starts with an observation that electoral support for HDZ was very stable throughout the period after the 1990 elections, while the support for left and centre parties exhibited a high degree of volatility in each election since 1990. The article posits that the reasons behind this pattern of shifts in electoral support lies in the type of linkages between parties and voters based on symbols and values shaped over a longer period of time, which were mobilized in the party system in 1990s and established stable linkages between parties and voters, eff ectively preventing any transmission of support across party bloc lines. Reasons behind the formation of asymmetrical pattern of mobilization lie in the fact that HDZ voters identify with their party based on values and symbols linked with the party itself, while voters of left and centre parties identify more with values these parties represent, more or less eff ectively, than with the parties themselves. Empirical analysis of factors shaping party voter linkages fi nds that attitudes toward religion; history and traditional values are principal factors defi ning linkages between parties and voters. But at the same time, it appears that the character of these linkages is changing over time and that it depends on coalition patterns and shifts in messages of the party leadership