The European Migration Situation and Its Perspectives

Rad je pokušaj sinteze evropske migracijske situacije i perspektive u neposrednoj budućnosti. Polazi se od konstatacije da je Gastarbeiterski model rotirajućih migranata u osnovi prestao funkcionirati od naftne krize. Aktualna migrantska situacija raspravlja se preko tržišta rada, pravnog statusa, povratka i reintegracije, te položaja »druge generacije« migranata. U potrazi za novim evropskim migracijskim modelom razvijeno je više koncepata koji su prezentirani kao prilozi razumijevanju suvremenih migracijskih procesa, ali će se većina istraživača zacijelo složiti da još ne postoji šire prihvaćeni model. Razlog vjerojatno leži i u ambivalenciji položaja i perspektive migranata i posebno migrantske omladine. Iz postojećih demografskih trendova na evropskome i svjetskom planu, kretanja na tržištu rada i tehnoloških promjena pokušava se, zatim, predvidjeti budućnost migracija u Evropi. U tom kontekstu dana je skica i za jugoslavensku migracijsku perspektivu.The paper is an attempt to synthesize the European migration situation and its perspectives in the nearest future. It begins with the claim that the Gastarbeiter model of rotating migrant workers has in essence stopped to function after the oil crisis. The present migration situation is analysed in regard to the labour market, the legal status of migrants, return flows and reintegration, and the position of second generation migrants. In the search for a new European migration model several concepts have been developed. The author presents them as contributions to the understanding of contemporary migration processes, although most researchers would probably agree that a single widely accepted model does not yet exist. The reason most likely lies in the ambivalent position and perspectives of migrants, and especially of migrant youth. In the second part of the paper the author attempts to discern the future of migration in Europe on the basis of existing demographic trends in Europe and the world, present trends on the labour market and current technological changes. In this context he offers an outline for the Yugoslav migration perspective