Not always a disadvantage: No relative age effect in elite junior ice hockey forwards

The relative age effect (RAE) refers to the higher representation of players born early in the year on youth and professional sporting teams. Although the RAE is a well-established phenomenon, recent research has pointed to violations of the RAE amongst senior performers at the pinnacle of their sport (e.g., award winning players). Such violations are proposed to be due to peer effects: the increased challenge overcome by relatively late born players during their development, resulting in the acquisition of superior skill levels, which eventually translate into higher achievement. The present research sought to identify the age at which peer effects appear in junior populations. Date of birth distribution was analysed for players at the Under 18 (U18) and U20 Ice Hockey World Championships between 2000 and 2014. An elite subset, comprising award winning players from those championships, was also analysed. Results indicated a RAE at U18 level, irrespective of skill level or playing position. At U20 level there was a RAE in the general population, and amongst elite defenders. However, elite forwards demonstrated no RAE. Support for this finding was obtained from an analysis of the top National Hockey League draftees from 2000 to 2013. In conclusion, peer effects appear to emerge for ice hockey forwards at the U20 level