Changes in the Ethnic Structure of Petrinja: Demographic and Sociological Aspects

Namjera ovog rada je da prikaže promjenu etničke strukture u banijskoj općini Petrinja (case study) i razazna njene uzroke (koji se u neku ruku čine paradigmatičnima za etnički miješana područja periferalne, odnosno poluperiferalne Hrvatske). Nakon kratkog povijesnog pregleda naseljavanja Petrinje slijedi opis njenih populacijsko-naseljskih značajki. Predočavanjem dinamike brojčanog razvitka ukazuje se na diferencijalno migracijsko obilježje: Petrinja i nekolicina okolnih naselja privlače doseljenike, dok glavnina rurisa ima emigracijske značajke. Kada je o etničkoj strukturi riječ, zapaža se da su Hrvati još 1948. činili gotovo 2/3 stanovništva općine i više od 4/5 gradskog stanovništva. Kasniji popisi pokazuju strmoglavi pad udjela Hrvata u stanovništvu općine (1991/1948. indeks 71,3) i značajan porast udjela Srba (indeks 121,4). U samom gradu, pak, promjena je još izrazitija: udio je Hrvata prepolovljen (1991/1948. indeks 49,3), udio Srba više nego utrostručen (indeks 323,4) te udio "ostalih" višestruko povećan. Tako u gradu Petrinji za četiri desetljeća Hrvati postadoše od izrazito većinskoga – manjinski narod (1991. Hrvati 40,7%, Srbi 45,6% te "ostali i nepoznato", 13,7%). Porast broja stanovnika srpske nacionalnosti osjetno je iznad prosječnoga prirodnog priraštaja u općini, a broj stanovnika hrvatske nacionalnosti stagnira. Stoga autori zaključuju da se radi o selektivnom obilježju migracije. Analiza uzroka iseljavanja Hrvata i znatnijeg doseljavanja Srba temelji se na analizi petrinjskog društva (stavljenog u širi socijalni okvir). Primijećeno je da zbivanja za Drugoga svjetskog rata i neposredna poratna zbivanja nisu utjecala na promjenu dotadašnje etničke strukture Petrinje, ali da su ostavila traga na odnose u društvu unutar kojeg će se kasnije ona tako silovito odviti. Uzroke promjena etničke strukture autori traže u novim mobilnosnim kanalima (negativna selekcija kadrova, "nomenklatura" itd.) koje sa sobom donosi poslijeratna vlast uspostavljena na karizmi banijskih partizana i članova Komunističke partije, vezi ideologije i subetničkih tradicija (patrijarhalnost, paternalizam, etnocentrizam), razapinjanju porodičnih mreža, neravnomjernoj regionalnoj razvijenosti i logičnosti stremljenja nerazvijene periferije (s većinskim srpskim stanovništvom) prema razvijenijoj Petrinji te u učinkovitosti političkog sustava koji je izgradio političku podlogu s kojom su se (čini se) više identificirali banijski Srbi nego Hrvati. Uvažavajući i mnoge druge čimbenike (poput sklapanja etnički miješanih brakova, povećane pokretljivosti, nadnacionalne ideologizacije društva itd.), autori naglašavaju ulogu političke elite koja je unutar sistemskih rješenja razvoja banijske regije iskoristila priliku za promoviranje svoje etničke grupe.The aim of this paper is to illustrate changes in the ethnic structure of the commune Petrinja in Banija (a case study), and to ascertain some of their causes (which in a certain sense represent a paradigm for ethnically mixed peripheral regions, i.e. for peripheral Croatia). After a brief historic review of the settling of Petrinja, a description is given of some of its populational-settlemental characteristics. Data on the dynamics of numerical development show a differential migrational trait: Petrinja and some surrounding settlements attract immigrants, whereas the majority of the rural areas have emigrational characteristics. In regard to ethnic structure, it is noted that as late as 1948 Croats constituted practically two thirds of the population of the commune and four fifths of the city population. Consequent censuses showed a drastic decline in the percent of Croats in the commune (with an index of 71.3 for 1948/1991), and a significant increase of the proportion of Serbs (an index of 49.9 for 1991/1948). In the city the change was even greater: the percentage of Croats was halved (an index of 49.3 for 1991/1948), the percentage of Serbs increased threefold (index 323.4), and the proportion of the “other” groups increased several times. Thus in the city of Petrinja, in four decades, the Croats changed from being an explicit majority into an ethnic minority (1991 Croats 40.7%, Serbs 45,6%, “others and unknown” 13,7%). In the entire commune, the growth of the Serbian population is well over the average natural increment, whereas the number of Croats is in stagnation. Hence the authors conclude that the situation is characterised by selective migration. Their analysis of the causes for the emigration of Croats and a pronounced immigration of Serbs is based on analysis of Petrinja society (within three societal frameworks). It is noted that events during the Second World War and in the immediate post-war period did not effect the former ethnic structure in Petrinja, yet they left a trace on the social relations which later led to rapid change in ethnic structure. The authors see the causes of the transformation in the formation of new mobilisational channels (negative selection of personnel, “nomenclature” etc.) brought into effect by the post-war regime, based on the charisma of the Banija partisans and the members of the Communist Party. The scheme is characterised by links between ideology and subethnic traditions (patriarchal modes, paternalism, ethnocentrism), family networks, an uneven level of development, the logical inclination of the undeveloped periphery (with a Serbian majority) towards Petrinja, and the effects of a political system and a political base with which (it seems) the Serbs of Banija identified more than did the Croats. Taking into consideration many other factors (i.e. ethnically mixed marriages, increased mobility, supernational ideologies, etc.) the authors emphasize the role of a political elite which took advantage of the plan for the systematic development of the Banija region in order to promote its own particular ethnic group