Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands

Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, less is known about when automated vehicles will hit the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transportation technology will affect transportation demand and planning. This study identified through scenario analysis plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and estimated potential implications for traffic, travel behavior and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV \u85in standby, AV \u85in bloom, AV \u85in demand, AV \u85in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate market rapidly after their 17 introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among different scenarios 1between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in 2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in the impacts among the scenarios. It is expected that measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities will be necessary in three out of the 24 four scenarios.Transport & PlanningCivil Engineering and Geoscience