Impact of climatic change on the Po Delta: Deltaic fringe modelling

With the present paper we aim at summarizing the work undertaken in the MEDDELT Project on the characterisation of the dynamical processes of the Po Delta Fringe and particulalry highlight the conceptual developments achieved about the integrated modelling. We assume to be in a region of the deltaic area where there is tipically a direct influence of sea dynamics on the evolution of the morphological characters on a time scale of decades. In practice in the Po Delta such area is delimited by sea dikes. This assumption rises the requirement to consider not just the direct natural mechanisms of influence but also the direct human induced ones particularly in the long term evolution of the Po Delta fringe. We briefly describe the problem of definition of scales, the computation of budget and the physiographic unit approach with reference to climatic change related phenomena impacting on the Po Delta fringe. As a first approach we go deeper into the application of the classical Bruun approach in the evaluation of the effects of relative sea level rise in the coastal area. We then focus on the modelling of the formation and reduction processes and on the application of the physiographic unit approach. We conclude by discussing the topic of predictability and application of the models in an integrated framework as decision support tools.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience