Price Cost and Yield Risk Management for Crop Production in Taiwan

[[abstract]]台灣早期以農業為主，而農業發展則以氣候、地形為主要影響因素，尤其是氣候中的雨量和溫度影響程度最大，而台灣發生天然災害頻率頗高，農民在生產農作物時，時常因為天然災害而蒙受大量之損失，大力衝擊農作物交易價格的波動，使得農作物無法收支平衡。 本研究的農作物選擇文旦柚作為研究主體，在農業面臨價格風險及產量風險時，考慮我國的文旦柚之生產成本與交易價格的波動所產生的價格風險之相關性和因颱風、乾旱、豪雨導致農作物損失的產量風險，建立風險模型並考慮交易價格與生產成本之間有無相關性的情況，模擬結果證明，文旦柚之生產成本與交易價格並無絕對關係。 本研究主要目的是在農作物有損失的情況下，採用農業風險管理分析工具來覆蓋損失的比例與組合，以政府補貼、契作和農產品保險…等風險管理工具為主，以自留與巨災(使用期貨、選擇權、債券…)等風險管理工具為輔，以風險管理工具來填補農業生產者所遭受的損失。[[abstract]]In earlier periods Taiwan mainly focused on agriculture and the development of agriculture is primarily affected by climate and geography Rain amount and temperature have the most effect on agriculture and Taiwan has a high occurrence rate of natural disasters When farmers grow crops they often bear major losses because of natural disasters and this also significantly impact crop transaction prices and makes it impossible for farmers to recover their costs In this study pomelo was the crop chosen for study When agriculture is faced with price risks and production quantity risks two return risk models are established with two different production costs after taking into account the correlation of price risks that stem from the fluctuations in production cost and transaction price of pomelos in Taiwan and the production quantity and price risk that comes from loss of crops due to typhoons droughts and torrential rain Given these risk models are set up separately Meanwhile this study considered the correlation of transaction price and production cost In the results pomelo of production costs and the transaction price is no absolute relationship The primary objective of this study is to use agriculture risk management analysis tools to cover loss ratio and combinations in the event of crop loss Primary risk management tools include government subsidies contract farming and crop insurance Secondary risk management tools are self-retention and disaster (use of futures options bonds…) risk management tools All of these tools are used to compensate for losses borne by farmer