Cost Considerations Residential Transfer Factors and Study the Optimal Sale

[[abstract]]隨著低利率與量化寬鬆兩大主軸的貨幣政策於 2014~2015 年間出現了巨大的變化，美國的QE政策已於2014年底完全退場，歐元區卻又接續實施；國內不動產情勢方面，相關政府部會政策不約而同出現打壓的局面，另外，銀行為降低風險也紛紛嚴控房貸與土建融，同時經過多年穩定報酬後，市場恐面臨去槓桿化，投資者逢高出脫獲利了結的壓力趨增，皆意謂國內不動產市場將開始進入動盪的年代。本文有鑑於此，在不動產投資人正逢賣壓趨增的同時，探討不動產在持續出租，享有租金報酬之狀況下，加入不動產出售後所產生之移轉成本因子，評估出不動產的最適出售價值，並根據其推估出不動產的理論價值。研究發現，波動率、稅賦與租金會對投資人未來不動產預期出售價格有正面的影響，三者的數值越大，投資人設定未來出售的目標價就會越高；而當市場利率較低的時候，利率與不動產實質價值呈現負相關，反之，利率在高檔時，兩者卻不具相關性。[[abstract]]With low interest rates and quantitative easing monetary policy the two spindles between 2015 appeared in 2014 - a huge change the United States was completely exit QE policy by the end of 2014 but continue the implementation of the euro zone; domestic real estate situation the relevant government department policies will invariably appear to suppress the situation in addition to reducing the risk of bank loans have also strictly control the financial and civil but after years of steady returns the market fear of facing deleveraging investors sell off rallies profit-taking pressure trend growth means all real estate market will begin to enter the domestic turmoil of the era In view of this paper the real estate investor selling trend coincided with the increase while continuing to explore real estate rental enjoy the transfer cost factor to assess the value of real estate sold under optimum conditions of rent paid arising from the sale of real estate after joining and Collocation the theoretical value of real estate in accordance with its The study found that when the low market interest rates when interest rates and the real value of the real estate negative correlation; on the contrary the interest rate at the time of the high-end but not a correlation between the tw