The Relationship of Consumer Loans and Macroeconomic Activity

[[abstract]]本文研究臺灣地區2005年1月至2013年1月台灣消費者貸款與總體經濟活動(貨幤供給額、工業生產指數、失業率及消費者物價指數)的互動關係。實證結果發現：第一、總體經濟變數的時間序列多存在隨機漫步走勢的預期。第二、各變數間彼此互不具領先落後關係，無法相互預測。第三、對於來自內生變量的衝擊，在10期內衝擊反應皆會逐漸消失。[[abstract]]This paper investigates the relationship of macroeconomic activity and consumer loans in Taiwan with monthly data are from January 2005 to January 2013 a total of 97 observations The macroeconomic variables considered in this paper include money supply industrial production index unemployment rate and consumer price index to analyze the impact of the macroeconomic condition on the consumer loans The results show that firstly macroeconomic time series variables mostly display random walk trend as predicted Secondly all the variables used to analyze the impact toward the consumer loans do not show any lead or lag effects on the remaining other variables Lastly the impulsive response caused by the intentionally inserting shocks or internal big changes of each variable has shown to approach the equilibrium within 10 period