Economic Feasibility Analysis for an Electric Car Sharing System in North Kaohsiung University Area

[[abstract]]目前高雄市發展的大眾運輸系統為捷運、公車以及腳踏車，自從高雄捷運通車後，相關單位也提出許多優惠方案，吸引民眾使用大眾運輸，提升大眾運輸使用率。再者，現今環保意識抬頭，汽車產業也積極推動電動汽車發展，雖然目前電動汽車仍有行車速度較慢與充電問題待解決，但作為地區性接駁工具不但疑慮較少，還可顯現出電動汽車安全與環保的特點。本論文的研究地區─北高雄大學城距離市中心較偏遠，相較於市中心，此範圍大眾運輸系統運量較低，此外，在接駁運具選擇方面，由於轉乘公車平均等候時間較久，因此，在接駁不方便的情況下，民眾寧可選擇私有運具。本研究認為此區域具有許多大專院校、加工出口區以及購物商場等產業，如果能夠利用電動汽車租賃作為接駁運具，推動創新的運輸模式並且發展為大學城，成為示範區域，彰顯出此地區的特色。本研究首先分析北高雄大學城旅次特性，再估計需求預測，計算出相關的成本與效益後，進行成本效益分析，利用現值法、益本比法以及內部報酬率法進行可行性分析，評估此研究是否可達到經濟效益，最後再假設樂觀情境、一般情境以及悲觀情境三種情境分析。研究結果顯示，在樂觀情境與一般情境中，成本效益分析結果皆具經濟可行性，悲觀情境則否。本研究認為，若欲發展北高雄電動汽車租賃共享計畫，相關單位應設法減少成本，其中成本項又以管理成本占總成本最重，推動智慧型運輸模式應為可行方式。最後，希望此研究能提供相關單位參考，使此區域大眾運輸系統更加完善，蓬勃產業發展。[[abstract]]Currently the public transport system in Kaohsiung includes Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), bus, and public bicycle. Since Kaohsiung MRT started to operate, the municipal government tried to increase the utility by offeringmany promotions. Besides, the environmental consciousness today leads to the automotive industry to develop electric vehicles enthusiastically. Although electric vehicle still have some weakness such as low speed and charge problem, when they are used as transit feeder, they are safer and more sustainable. In our studied area - North Kaohsiung University Area, few passengers use public transport system. The average waiting time, feeder buses is too long. In the case, people prefer private vehicle rather than public transport system. There are many universities, export processing zone, and shopping malls in this area. This study considers that we have an electric car sharing system, the kind of advanced innovative transportation will promote the development of this area. It can also become a demonstration of car sharing and a feature of the area. Firstly, this paper studied the trip characteristics in North Kaohsiung University Area. Secondly, we forecasted the future demand and calculated related cost and benefit. To proceed a cost-benefit analysis, we employee three evaluation methods, Net Present Value, Benefit-Coat Ratio, and Internal Rate of Return, to assess the economic feasibility of this project. Finally, we assume three scenario analysis including optimistic, general, and pessimistic scenarios. The result shows that in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, cost-benefit analysis conformed the project is economically feasible, however, in the pessimistic scenario, the result is reverse. This study found the management cost is major cost of this project. Therefore, we should reduce the cost by developing an intelligent management method for example. Finally, we hope that this research will help to improve public transport system and industrial development in this area