Priority Determination for Construction Project Alternatives with the Analytic Network Process Method

[[abstract]]公私部門機構在評估營建投資時常有數個專案選項，例如有幾宗基地可擇一開發和 在同一基地有不同建物類型供選擇興建。評估並比較它們的價值，找出相對最優者來執 行，是業主在專案規劃階段最重要的決策。傳統的淨現值法為單屬性評估，難以納入無 形效益和風險因素，因此其結果並不能代表各選項之整體價值。多屬性效用理論法雖可 納入這些因素而得出選項整體效用值，但有評估準則權重和效用函數訂定不易之缺點。 以兩兩相比產生準則權重和選項評分之層級程序分析法雖易於使用且具有一致性檢驗功 能，但不允許準則和選項間有回饋關係，故其評估結果不能包含如此回饋關係的影響。 本研究之目的為發展改善之建案選項評估模式，擬使用由層級程序分析法一般化而來之 網路程序分析法，將納入多個正面(效益)和負面(成本)因子以及層級程序分析所無之回饋 影響。擬以高雄地區近年的數起住宅建案為假設選項，並從一家中型建設公司的立場來 評定它們的優先次序，藉以提出示範性網路程序分析法模式。將蒐集案例的相關背景資 料，並深入探討影響它們經濟性之各種因子(含機會和風險)，以及因子間之關係和因子與 選項間之可能回饋關係，確定者將訂為準則群與影響連結，建構成網路評估模式。再以 公司及建案情況為依據，決定模式之輸入值，經運算處理產生準則權重與選項相對分數， 排定出選項的優先次序，並將結果與使用其它方法所得之評估相比較。最後會檢討模式 之合理性和實用性，以做出結論和建議。[[abstract]]In evaluating construction investments, public or private sector firms often have several project alternatives, for example, a few sites available for selecting one for development and at a site different types of building available for selecting one for construction. Assessing and comparing their value so as to identify the best alternative in relative terms for implementation is owners’most important decision in the project planning stage. The traditional net present worth method is of single attribute evaluation, which is difficult to include intangible benefits and risk factors, so the result from it cannot represent the overall value of each alternative. Although the multi-attribute utility theory method can include these factors and produce a total utility score for an alternative, it has the disadvantage of difficulty in determining criteria weights and utility functions for evaluation. Using paired comparisons to generate criteria weights and priority scores of alternatives, the analytic hierarchy process method is easy in use and has a function for checking comparison consistency, but it does not permit feedback relations between criteria and alternatives, so the result of evaluation cannot incorporate the impact of such feedback relations. The objective of this research is to develop an improved model for assessing construction project alternatives using the analytic network process method that comes as the generalized analytic hierarch process method and including multiple positive (benefit) and negative (cost) factors as well as the feedback impact lacking in the analytic hierarch process. The research will use several recent cases of housing projects in the Kaohsiung area as hypothetical alternatives and determine their priority ordering from the viewpoint of a medium size developer, in order to propose an illustrative analytic network process model. Relevant background data concerning case projects will be collected and an in-depth study of various factors influencing their economics including opportunities and risks as well as the relations between factors and possible feedback relations between factors and alternatives will be conducted; those confirmed will be set as the criteria and the dependency links for constructing a network model for assessment. Next, based on company and project conditions, values of inputs for the model will be determined, and then will be processed through calculations to produce the criteria weights and the relative scores of the alternatives for establishing their priority ordering. Moreover, the result will be compared with assessments obtained using other methods. Lastly, the soundness and practicality of the model will be examined so as to make conclusions and suggestions.[[note]]NSC101-2221-E327-03