The Application of Real Option Models on Evaluating Urban Land Readjustment Project

[[abstract]]以傳統淨現值方法評估自辦市地重劃計畫，對開發商而言並無合理之投資報酬，然開發商並未因此放棄開發，因此自辦市地重劃案之開發效益是高或低，實有深入探討之必要。本研究主要運用與比較二項式實質選擇權模型 (Binomial Option Pricing Model)與Capozza and Li (2002)實質選擇權模型分析自辦市地重劃案開發之投資價值。本研究以高雄縣慈惠與文山兩自辦市地重劃案為研究對象，實證結果究發現：(1)二項式實質選擇權模型與Capozza and Li (2002)實質選擇權模型均較傳統淨現值法評估之結果穩定且具一致性。(2)兩個研究個案均具投資價值，應即刻開發。(3)二項式實質選擇權模型較Capozza and Li (2002)實質選擇權模型為佳。[[abstract]]Traditional NPV approach shows there is no profit for land developers in most of the readjustment projects However land developers still flung themselves into the readjustment project Such phenomenon raises a question that whether the traditional NPV approach is appropriate in evaluating the land readjustment project and consequently motives this study Using both the Binomial Option Pricing Model and the Real Option Model of Capozza and Li (2002) as well as the samples from Tzwhei and Wenshan land adjustment projects in Kaohsiung City this study concludes that: (1) evaluations from either the Binomial Option Pricing Model or the Real Option Model are more stable and consistent than that from traditional NPV approach (2) results from those two models suggest the two readjustments should be undertaken immediately and (3) the Binomial Option Pricing Model performs better than the Real Option Model doe