The relationship between bank loans and macroeconomic variables: A case of Taiwan Business Bank

[[abstract]]銀行法大幅修訂後，整體金融機構家數及分行數急速成長，金融市場競爭更加激烈，銀行之經營風險大為提高。台灣的銀行為爭取企業授信，審核尺度較之前寬鬆使授信品質漸趨不良。面對總體經濟變動，企業授信確實存在著相當大的風險。本文以輔導中小企業為主要任務的台灣企銀為例，研究2004年1月到2011年12月中小企業放款餘額成長率、逾放比、通貨膨脹率、貨幣供給額成長率、本國股價指數報酬率探討彼此間的互動關係，觀察台灣企銀信用緊縮的現象。研究發現通貨膨脹率與貨幣供給額成長率具有單向領先中小企業放款餘額成長率變化之關係。此外，由變異數分解結果可知就整體而言，用貨幣供給額成長率解釋當期中小企業放款餘額成長率變動效果較佳。[[abstract]]After The Banking Act of The Republic of China was amended financial institutions and bank branches sprung up across the country Ever since the competition in financial market has become very fierce and the operation risk of a bank has also increased drastically In order to compete in the market of extending credit to enterprises banks started to relax lending standards; thus resulted in worsening quality of bank loans In the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment banks extending credit to enterprises are subject to a great risk This paper examines Taiwan Business Bank whose major service is to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) from January 2004 to December 2011 To look at the phenomena of credit crunches in Taiwan Business Bank this paper investigates relational interdependencies among variables such as SME loan ratio of Taiwan Business Bank overdue loan ratio of Taiwan Business Bank Inflation rate M1B money supply growth rate and return rate of Taiwan stock index The results are as follows: Inflation rate and M1B money supply growth rate are early indicators for SME loan ratio of Taiwan Business Bank The results of forecast error variance decomposition suggest that M1B money supply growth rate can validly explains the change in SME loan ratio of Taiwan Business Ban