The Relationship between the Growth of Demand for Reverse Mortgages and House Price Appreciation

[[abstract]]鑒於人口結構改變，國外紛紛推出專為老年人口設計的創新金融商品，尤其以反向抵押貸款最受重視。根據先前研究可知，房價升值率為金融機構評估貸款金額最重要之因素，但房價升值率對反向抵押貸款市場需求卻有正反兩面之影響，因此本文研究房屋升值率與反向抵押貸款需求成長率之非線性關係。實證發現當門檻為十年期國庫券利率時，房屋升值率對反向抵押貸款需求成長率之影響為平滑移轉效果。當利率低於門檻時，房價升值率與反向抵押貸款需求成長為反向關係，代表低利率水準下對於未來景氣看法保守，金融機構在估計房屋價值時轉趨為嚴謹，即使借款人在貸款當下，房價是處於升值狀態，但在借款者可貸成數可能減少下，使得老齡屋主較無意願申請反向抵押貸款。然而，當利率高於門檻值時，則房價升值率會增加反向抵押貸款之需求成長。若未來景氣蓬勃下，則可能帶動利率高漲及房地產市場活絡，使得房屋價值上升，進而導致每期可貸金額增加，則高齡屋主申請反向抵押貸款的需求上升。本研究結果有助於金融機構有效了解反向抵押貸款的趨勢與需求，可幫助其貸款的推廣及促銷，可供金融機構或政府推行此商品之參考。[[abstract]]Because of the change of population structure foreign countries have been offering innovative financial products for the elderly population especially the most attention to reverse mortgages Under previous studies house price appreciation is the most important factor to evaluate the loan for financial institutions However house price appreciation has two sides of impact on the demand of reverse mortgages so this paper research the non-linear relationship between house price appreciation and the growth of demand for reverse mortgages The empirical results show when the threshold variable for 10-year Treasury bond interest rates it is the smooth transition threshold effect for the house price appreciation to the growth of demand for the reverse mortgages While the interest rate doesn't reach the threshold the growing of house price appreciation is in the converse direction of the demand for reverse mortgages which represent people are conservative for future prosperity with the low standard interest rate and the financial institutions estimated the value of the house turned to rigorous Even if the borrowers grant a mortgage as the house prices are in the condition of appreciation the loan-to-value ratio for borrowers could be reduced that make the elderly people hardly has desire to apply the reverse mortgages If the interest rate however has above the threshold the house price appreciation will promote the growth of demand for reverse mortgages In case the future vigorously prosperity drives the high interest rates as well as the real estate market up the house prices would probably increased which leads to the increment amount of available loan and rises the demand of applying for reverse mortgages from elderly people The results of this study can let financial institutions effectively understand the trends and needs of reverse mortgages and can help them promotion and marketing their loans available to financial institutions or the Government of reference of this commodit