A Study of Taiwan Enterprises’ Ability to Pay Short-Term Debt in the Credit Rating Model

[[abstract]]假使能夠事先發現問題企業經營惡化的徵兆，企業主本身能夠採取正確有效的措施，來加以改善，以防範企業經營情況更加惡化。而一個具有預測能力的企業財務預警模型，不僅可以幫助企業本身事先發現危機所在，對於金融機構的授信決策與投資大眾的投資判斷上都將有所助益。 本論文主要的目的在於建立一個適用於一般金融機構的授信評量模型，係以短期償債能力做為主要參考變數。本研究所擷取的資料來自金融聯合徵信中心之線上資料庫，在實務上適用於國內之金融機構。本研究以八十八年度相關之財務資料做為訓練樣本，用以建構研究模型，並以八十七年之資料來驗證此模型之準確性，採用羅吉斯迴歸為本論文之研究方法。本研究之結果分述如下： 1 本研究建立之短期償債能力授信評價模型，預測正常企業之準確性達90%以上，預測危機企業的準確性亦有80%以上之水準。 2 在幾項考量短期償債能力的模型變數中，本研究發現，以淨值比率、短期借款比率變化的預測效果最好，其次為營業活動比率與速動比率。 3 由本研究可驗證出，當企業有危機徵兆出現時，短期償債能力會明顯降低，因此觀察幾項相關變數之變化便能預測危機發生的可能性。 綜上所述，短期償債能力是企業面臨周轉壓力時最重要與最後一道關卡，無論企業發生財務危機的原因為何，危機企業在瀕臨困境的危險期間，短期償債能力將大幅持續下降，這也是本研究捨卻一般財務比率區別分析，而以幾項短期償債能力指標代替的主要原因。[[abstract]]If enterprise mangers could notice early the worsening sign of enterprise operation they would be able to adopt effective measures to prevent financial diaster A pre-caution model with full scale of predition capability not only can help enterprise find out the crisis but also can help financial institution and gereal public to make investment wisely The main purpose of this thesis is to establish a Credit Rating Model suitable for general financial institution In this research the ability of pay short-term debt is the most fundamental variable All of the data come from the on-line data base of the Joint Credit Information Center Training Sample of research consisted of the 1999 financial reports of over 200 local companies This research use logit regression statistical methodology to test the significance of this model Results of this research is stated as following: (1)The ability to pay short-tem debt in the credit rating model is approximately 90% for normal enterprises and over 80% for enterprises in crisis (2)This research discovers that equity ration and changes of the short-term loan ration have the best prediction power Sales rations and quick rations of liquidity are also good index for prediction (3)Research result shows that enterprises’ ability to pay short-term debt deteriorated whenever crisis appeared According to this rules prediction of enterprise crisis is possibile just by observing some relevant variables In summary enterprises’ ability to pay short-term debt is the most significant factor when enterprises face immediate turnover pressure No matter what causes enterprises’ financial crisis this ability to pay short-term debt will always deteriorate dramatically and continuously Therefore this is the reason why this research employs the ability to pay short-term debt as the key variable for study instead of the more common approach of using some other financial ration to distingwish enterprises in crisi