A comparison of the financial loss for housing loans between batch of single houses and building of apartments : a cohort study from a business bank in Kaohsiung City

[[abstract]]在全球金融寬鬆貨幣政策影響下，國際游資四處流竄，推升黃金、糧食等原物料價格飆升，熱錢大量湧入亞洲，造成亞幣巨幅升值及資產泡沫危機，歐洲爆發債信危機、美國債台高築、全球股市大幅下修，經濟金融市場情勢變化劇烈，銀行風險不斷升高，同業間相戶削價競爭搶奪微利。若能爭取優良建商承作建築融資貸款以利衍生分戶貸款往來機會，並於承做房貸款業務時，推展企金、外匯、信用卡、財富管理等業務，不啻為雙贏策略。 本研究係長期追蹤整批大樓貸款及整批透天貸款之申貸戶，依貸放後至清償貸款或研究終止時間點（2011年 8 月底），依其每筆放款帳務序時紀錄每月繳納本息及違約情形，以每半年為基準單位作實證分析，可歸納結論如下： （一）整批房貸於貸放後第3〜4年是提前清償、繳納本息及違約機率之關鍵期，若能運用風險預警模型之評等與等級變化情形，及早發現違約癥兆，以減少業務損失。 （二）本研究針對性別對清償、勞貸、違約及年齡級距變數間作交叉分析及卡方檢定，顯示僅有性別對年齡級距有顯著關係。[[abstract]]The loose monetary policies worldwide have led to large flows of liquid capital and rising prices of gold and food. The massive inflow of hot money into the Asian market has been accompanied by the revaluation of Asian currencies and the risk of liquid assets. Besides the European debt crisis and US debt, global stock markets are sharply lower. The circumstances are changing rapidly in the economic and financial markets. Banks are facing increasing risks and earning meager profits in a highly competitive market. If construction loans are extended to the builders with fine reputations, there will be more opportunities for individual mortgage loans. While extending mortgage loans, banks are able to promote their products and services such as corporate finance, foreign exchange, credit cards, wealth management, and so on. It makes for a win-win solution. The research follows a cohort of block mortgage accommodators for a long period of time and investigates their payment behavior, from the drawdown date to the time when the mortgage was discharged or the research ceased (the end of August, 2011). According to each loan entry, the monthly payments are recorded chronologically, including the principal, interest and defaults. The conclusions of the positive analysis conducted every six months are as follows: (1) About 3-4 years after the mortgage is taken, is a critical period of prepayment, sum total of principal, interest receivable and calculation of the default ratio. If the evaluation and change status level of the risk prediction alert model can be applied, the default problem can be found at an early stage in order to reduce the loss of sales. (2) The study has applied the Chi-Square Test to examine the statistical analysis in cross-tabulation for gender with regard to discharge, labor loan, default and the variable of age range. There is a significant relationship of gender to age