The Application of Decision Tree to Analyze the Financial Distress of Listed Electronic Companies in Taiwan

[[abstract]]本研究應用決策樹分析探討2005~2009年台灣上市電子業公司的財務狀況以及影響公司財務狀況的重要因素。首先在不同樣本配對1：2、1：4、1：5的方法下，採用二十個財務變數做決策樹分析，再以因素分析將選取的變數簡化成三個構面，分別命名為「獲利能力指標」、「現金流量指標」和「經營能力指標」。然後在三種樣本配對方法下，採用因素得點做決策樹分析。結果顯示以全部變數投入的決策樹整體預測率較佳，而且正確預測率都在90%以上。本研究之結果希望能提供給社會大眾、金融機構和公司管理者，預防檢視公司發生財務危機之參考。[[abstract]]This research uses “Decision Tree” to analyze and examine the financial status of Taiwan listed electronics manufacturing companies between 2005 and 2009 and the significant factors affecting it Under different sample matching ratios of 1:2 1:4 and 1:5 it applies “Decision Tree” analysis by using twenty financial variables Then apply factor analysis to simplify the selected variables into three structural dimensions namely “Profitability Index” “Cash Flow Index” and “Business Operating Ability Index” “Decision Tree” analyses were applied by using factor scores under three sample-matching ratios the results indicate that the “Decision Tree” derived from all variables has better overall correct prediction percentage with prediction accuracy over 90% Hopefully the research results can provide references for the public financial institutions and company managers to review its financial standing and to prevent financial crisi